Growth, Housing, and Global Imbalances

Abstract

In the decade leading to the Great Recession, the United States experienced rising house prices and current account deficits, whereas China and other fast-growing Asian economies saw rising house prices accompanied by current account surpluses. To explain these differences, we study a transition path in a two-country life-cycle model with housing once the two economies become financially integrated. We allow for asymmetries in productivity growth, the loan-to-value ratio, the life-cycle wage profile, and the population structure across countries. Our findings highlight that differences in the life-cycle pattern of the wage income profile are key to obtaining our results.