Signes Pont, MarĂ­a Teresa, Boters-Pitarch, Joan, Szymanski, Julian, Mora, Higinio A Formal Approach to Model the Expansion of Natural Events: The Case of Infectious Diseases Parallel Processing Letters. 2023, 33(4): 2340015. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0129626423400157 URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10045/138836 DOI: 10.1142/S0129626423400157 ISSN: 0129-6264 (Print) Abstract: A formal approach to modeling the expansion of natural events is presented in this paper. Since the mathematical, statistical or computational methods used are not relevant for development, a modular framework is carried out that guides from the external observation down to the innermost level of the variables that have to appear in the future mathematical-computational formalization. As an example we analyze the expansion of Covid-19. We perform a qualitative estimation of the impact of the causes on the delays of the spread and an analysis of the parameters. Keywords:Infectious disease expansion, Epidemiology, Formal approach, Mathematical modeling World Scientific Publishing info:eu-repo/semantics/article