The dynamics of political party support and egocentric economic evaluations: The Scottish case

Abstract

We explore the dynamics of the Scottish National Party (SNP) support using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) during 1999–06. We study the relative importance of political sentiments and egocentric economic evaluations by disentangling the effects of state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity by gender. Egocentric economic evaluations constitute an important determinant of SNP support over the entire period, being this effect stronger among the male electorate. The results are consistent with the electors holding the incumbent Labour Party accountable for their personal financial situation, though financial security augments the nationalist propensity among partisan voters. Furthermore, retrospective economic evaluations form a significant determinant of incumbent Labour Party support in both the 1999–02 and 2003–06 intervening electoral cycles.