Seismic risk assessment for the downtown of the city of Blida, Algeria

Abstract

Blida (Algeria) is characterized by a high level of seismic exposure and vulnerability due to its dense population and the presence of aging buildings. The historical earthquake that occurred in 1825, with a moment magnitude (Mw7.1), underscored the urgent need for a thorough assessment of seismic risk in the area. Here, an extensive study conducted in downtown of the city of Blida to evaluate seismic risk and its consequences is presented. Geounits 141 and 148 emerged as the most severely affected in all the simulated earthquake scenarios indicating severe damage and casualties mainly for closest earthquakes (Blida and Bounaian, both with moment magnitude Mw7.1) but also for furthest earthquakes as Mouzaia El Affroun (Mw6.6), and Hammam Melouane (Mw.5). The sensitivity analysis demonstrated the importance of the selection of the performance point computation method (improved displacement coefficient method -IDCM, modified capacity spectrum-MADRS, and nonlinear analysis method-N2) and the choice of the ground motion prediction equation. IDCM results are less influenced by the choice of the GMPE, but they provide higher damage results expressed as a mean damage ratio. Moreover, the study estimated potential human impacts in the Blida region, highlighting varying levels of impact on different geounits under different earthquake scenarios. The study's primary findings from seismic risk assessments in the studied region highlight its high susceptibility to earthquakes and can be summarized as follows: The mean damage ratio will be 52.6% ± 1.4%, 50.9% ± 1.6%; 31.8% ± 3.4% and 21.4% ± 3.1% for the Blida, Bounaian, Mouzaia El Affroun and Hammam Melouane earthquakes respectively.