A new tool to simulate ground shaking and earthquake losses

Abstract

The main purpose of this suite is Planning and Management of Seismic Emergencies before and after future damaging earthquake. This tool is written in ArcGIS software executing a fast and efficient determination of the estimated shakemaps and damage scenarios. The tool allows to select the earthquake source parameters through a defined database; moreover ground motion prediction equations can be chosen and they can be combined according to the study area features. The local site effects are characterized from Vs30 values, which have been achieved by topographic slope as a proxy (even with local correlations) obtained from digital elevation model. The elements exposed to risk are incorporated from the cadastral database after inputs has been refined through an automated analysis. Vulnerability and estimated losses can be determined either empirically (EMS-98 scale and Vulnerability Index, Iv) or analytically (Capacity spectrum). Additionally, a vulnerability modifier is implemented to account soil-structure resonance. Epistemic uncertainties are quantified in the input parameters using a logic tree. This tool has been validated through a representative seismic scenario: the 1910 Adra earthquake (southern Spain) with moment magnitude (Mw) 6.3 and macroseismic intensity VIII (EMS-98 scale) proving the reliability of this program.