Identification of the first COVID-19 infections in the US using a retrospective analysis (REMEDID)
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Título: | Identification of the first COVID-19 infections in the US using a retrospective analysis (REMEDID) |
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Autor/es: | Garcia-Garcia, David | Morales, Enrique | Fuente-Nunez, Cesar de la | Vigo, Isabel | Fonfría, Eva S. | Bordehore, Cesar |
Grupo/s de investigación o GITE: | Geodesia por Satélites para la Observación de la Tierra y el Cambio Climático / Satellite Geodesy for Earth Observation and Climate Studies (SG) | Gestión de Ecosistemas y de la Biodiversidad (GEB) |
Centro, Departamento o Servicio: | Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Matemática Aplicada | Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Ecología | Universidad de Alicante. Instituto Multidisciplinar para el Estudio del Medio "Ramón Margalef" |
Palabras clave: | COVID-19 | Experimental retrospective analysis | REMEDID | Epidemics | Pandemic | First infection |
Área/s de conocimiento: | Matemática Aplicada | Ecología |
Fecha de publicación: | 10-may-2022 |
Editor: | Elsevier |
Cita bibliográfica: | Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology. 2022, 42: 100517. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sste.2022.100517 |
Resumen: | Accurate detection of early COVID-19 cases is crucial to reduce infections and deaths, however, it remains a challenge. Here, we used the results from a seroprevalence study in 50 US states to apply our Retrospective Methodology to Estimate Daily Infections from Deaths (REMEDID) with the aim of analyzing the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections across the US. Our analysis revealed that the virus likely entered the country through California on December 28, 2019, which corresponds to 16 days prior to the officially recognized entry date established by the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention. Furthermore, the REMEDID algorithm provides evidence that SARS-CoV-2 entered, on average, a month earlier than previously reflected in official data for each US state. Collectively, our mathematical modeling provides more accurate estimates of the initial COVID-19 cases in the US, and has the ability to be extrapolated to other countries and used to retrospectively track the progress of the pandemic. The use of approaches such as REMEDID are highly recommended to better understand the early stages of an outbreak, which will enable health authorities to improve mitigation and preventive measures in the future. |
Patrocinador/es: | This work was supported by the University of Alicante [COVID-19 2020-41.30.6P.0016 to CB] and the Montó-Dénia Research Station (Agreement Ajuntament de Dénia-O.A. Parques Nacionales-Generalitat Valenciana) [2020-41.30.6O.00.01 to CB]. Cesar de la Fuente-Nunez holds a Presidential Professorship at the University of Pennsylvania, is a recipient of the Langer Prize by the AIChE Foundation and acknowledges funding from the Institute for Diabetes, Obesity, and Metabolism, the Penn Mental Health AIDS Research Center of the University of Pennsylvania, the Nemirovsky Prize, the Dean's Innovation Fund from the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of Health under award number R35GM138201, and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA; HDTRA11810041 and HDTRA1-21-1-0014). |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10045/123465 |
ISSN: | 1877-5845 (Print) | 1877-5853 (Online) |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.sste.2022.100517 |
Idioma: | eng |
Tipo: | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
Derechos: | © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
Revisión científica: | si |
Versión del editor: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sste.2022.100517 |
Aparece en las colecciones: | INV - SG - Artículos de Revistas INV - GEB - Artículos de Revistas |
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Archivo | Descripción | Tamaño | Formato | |
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Garcia-Garcia_etal_2022_SpatialSpatio-tempEpidemiol.pdf | 2,41 MB | Adobe PDF | Abrir Vista previa | |
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