Assessing the Predictive Performance of Probabilistic Caries Risk Assessment Models: The Importance of Calibration
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Título: | Assessing the Predictive Performance of Probabilistic Caries Risk Assessment Models: The Importance of Calibration |
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Autor/es: | Trottini, Mario | Campus, Guglielmo | Corridore, Denise | Cocco, Fabio | Cagetti, Maria Grazia | Vigo, Isabel | Polimeni, Antonella | Bossù, Maurizio |
Grupo/s de investigación o GITE: | Geodesia por Satélites para la Observación de la Tierra y el Cambio Climático / Satellite Geodesy for Earth Observation and Climate Studies (SG) | Grupo de Investigación en Ciencias de la Actividad Física y el Deporte (GICAFD) |
Centro, Departamento o Servicio: | Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Matemáticas | Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Matemática Aplicada |
Palabras clave: | Caries risk assessment | Cariogram | Calibration | Discrimination |
Área/s de conocimiento: | Estadística e Investigación Operativa | Matemática Aplicada |
Fecha de publicación: | oct-2020 |
Editor: | Karger |
Cita bibliográfica: | Caries Research. 2020, 54: 258-265. https://doi.org/10.1159/000507276 |
Resumen: | Probabilistic caries risk assessment models (P-CRA), such as the Cariogram, are promising tools to planning treatments in order to control and prevent caries. The usefulness of these models for informing patients and medical decision-making depends on 2 properties known as discrimination and calibration. Current common assessment of P-CRA models, however, ignores calibration, and this can be misleading. The aim of this paper was to provide tools for a proper assessment of calibration of the P-CRA models and improve calibration when lacking. A combination of standard calibration tools (calibration plot, calibration in-the-large, and calibration slope) and 3 novel measures of calibration (the Calibration Index and 2 related metrics, E50 and E90) are proposed to evaluate if a P-CRA model is well calibrated. Moreover, an approach was proposed and validated using data from a previous follow-up study performed on children evaluated by means of a reduced Cariogram model; Platt scaling and isotonic regression were applied showing a lack of calibration. The use of the Cariogram overestimates the actual risk of new caries for forecast probabilities <0.5 and underestimates the risk for forecast probabilities >0.6. Both Platt scaling and isotonic regression were able to significantly improve the calibration of the reduced Cariogram model, preserving its discrimination properties. The average specificity and sensitivity for both Platt scaling and isotonic regression using the cut-off point p= 0.5 were >83 and their sum well exceeded 160. The benefits of the proposed calibration methods are promising, but further research in this field is required. |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10045/109777 |
ISSN: | 0008-6568 (Print) | 1421-976X (Online) |
DOI: | 10.1159/000507276 |
Idioma: | eng |
Tipo: | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
Derechos: | © 2020 S. Karger AG, Basel |
Revisión científica: | si |
Versión del editor: | https://doi.org/10.1159/000507276 |
Aparece en las colecciones: | INV - GICAFD - Artículos de Revistas INV - SG - Artículos de Revistas |
Archivos en este ítem:
Archivo | Descripción | Tamaño | Formato | |
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Trottini_etal_2020_CariesRes_final.pdf | Versión final (acceso restringido) | 188,88 kB | Adobe PDF | Abrir Solicitar una copia |
Trottini_etal_2020_CariesRes_preprint.pdf | Preprint (acceso abierto) | 602,56 kB | Adobe PDF | Abrir Vista previa |
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